Forex is sometimes described as one of the riskiest financial markets. However, the volatility of currencies rarely exceeds 1-1.5% per day and risks are only high when unreasonable leverage is used. By choosing the leverage size traders actually determine their risks themselves. We do not recommend our clients use leverage higher than 1:5. The Forex market is a highly speculative market. Hence, the ability to analyze price bahavior becomes an invalubale asset for any trader.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
How Does 1 Analyze Forex ?
In essence,
analyzing the Forex market requires understanding price movement on financial markets. There are two types of analysis used in the financial markets: "fundamental" and "technical". While technical analysis gives the trader a grasp of patterns of movement in the market, fundamental analysis explains the reasons behind movements in the market and attempts to predict changes in price and market trends. A fundamental analysis takes into account the economic conditions of the countries whose currencies he or she trades, follows political events and trends in the world, and reacts to emergency news. Whatever method you prefer, the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to follow the various signals derived from the changes in price on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely shrug off incoming economic data or critical political decisions. For example, if one looks at the chart that shows EUR/USD moves over the recent war in Iraq, it becomes obvious that victories of the Coalition forces meant a stronger Dollar and a weaker Euro. Conversely, military failures resulted in a decline of the American currency, and a strengthened Euro.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Forex Market and Stock Market
As a result of its global dimension, the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, which enables investors to correct their positions at any point in time. Given the large number of players, the Forex market has narrow spreads and virtually no price gaps. The lack of price gaps enables investors to count on non-slippage order execution. However, in a very volatile market the possibility for slippage exists.The large volume of participants also reduces opportunity for insider information. To put it simply, there has never been a case of complete currency collapse in a developed country. The volatility of leading currencies rarely exceeds 1% per day, in contrast to the volatility of stocks, which may fluctuate by up to 10% over one trading session. The Forex market generally provides more opportunities for leveraged trading.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Forex Forcasting - Fundamental Analysis
The entry "Fundamental Analysis" into your search engine will yield over a million results. Fundamental Analysis was first used to identify under or over-valued companies and forecast and profit from future price movements on the stock market. To take a fundamental approach on the Forex market you should view a country as if it were a company and consider the underlying forces affecting the country's economy.This fundamentalist approach is informed by a wide range of elements. Let's consider the currency of country "X".
A Fundamentalist would analyze economic indicators (Interest rate; Employment figures and GDP to name but a few) as well as government policy (is the government right or left leaning; how secure the government's tenure is; the geo-political pressures on the government, etc.) and societal pressures (are the people "spenders" or "savers"? How do they perceive country X's economy and its economic institutions?) The information both pertinent and available is a vast ever-changing mosaic and it is impossible to keep on top of everything simultaneously. The first thing to remember is that the more you research and the more you learn, the more you will understand the subtle dynamic of the market. The second thing to do is to choose which indicators you feel are most indicative of price action. The only way to make a measured choice is to research and to listen to and learn from more experienced traders.News of economic indicators is released at set times and has a marked effect on the behavior of traders on the market, so an ignorance of these indictors would make the moves of the market completely inexplicable. It is important, therefore, to know when news is going to be announced and what the implications of the news are. Keep fully informed using the wealth of information available on the Internet. Visit the sites of the Central banks of the currencies you are considering (see the Links page), access their calendars of Economic Indicators and develop a clear idea of what economic information is about to be released and how it will affect the currency. Forex Club's internet trading platform, IDSystem, provides a constant flow of real-time, up-to-the-minute financial news from Dow Jones Newswires directly to your trading screen, equipping you to devise sound, informed trading strategies. The two services available are Dow Jones Business News and Dow Jones Money News. These services are available to Forex Club clients absolutely free-of-charge.Fundamental Analysis is generally held to be an effective method of forecasting economic conditions, but is less precise when it comes to outlining a profitable trading strategy. A trader has to derive his or her own responsive strategy. Bear in mind, also, that not only are the figures themselves important but also how these figures influence expectations.One major difference between fundamental analysis on the stock market and fundamental analysis on the Forex market is that on the Forex market you have to consider two currencies, as there are two sides to every trade.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Forex forecasting - Technical Analysis
Technical analysis
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.
Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:
1. Market action discounts everything:
This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.
2. Prices move in trends:
Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.
3. History repeats itself:
Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Forex Market Drivers
How Interest Rate Increases Drive Currency Prices:
A common way to think about U.S. interest rates is how much it's going to cost to borrow money, whether for our mortgages or how much we'll earn on our bond and money market investments. Currency traders think bigger. Interest rate policy is actually a key driver of currency prices and typically a strategy for new currency traders.
Fundamentally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen because the higher interest rates attract more foreign investors. When foreign investors invest in U.S. treasuries, they must sell their own currency and buy U.S. Dollars in order to purchase the bonds. If you believe U.S. interest rates will continue to rise, you could express that view by going long U.S. Dollars.
If you believe that the Fed has finished raising rates for the time being, you could capitalize on that view by buying a currency with a higher interest rate, or at least the prospect of relatively higher rates. For example, U.S. rates may be higher than those of Euroland now but the prospect of higher rates in Euroland, albeit still lower than the U.S., may drive investors to purchase Euros.
How Rising Gold Prices Affect Currencies:
It's not hard to understand why we've experienced a run-up in gold prices lately. In the US, we're dealing with the threat of inflation and a lot of geo-political tension. Historically, gold is a country-neutral alternative to the U.S. dollar. So given the inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. Dollar, currency traders can take advantage of volatility in gold prices in innovative ways.
For example, if gold breaks an important price level, one would expect gold to move higher in coming periods. With this in mind, forex traders would look to sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. Moreover, higher gold prices frequently have a positive impact on the currencies of major gold producers. For example, Australia is the world's third largest exporter of gold, and Canada is the world's third largest producer of gold. Therefore, if you believe the price of gold will continue to rise you could establish long positions in Australian Dollar or the Canadian Dollar - or even position to be long those currencies against other major countries like the UK or Japan.
Translating Rising Oil Prices to Currency Trading Opportunities:
Equity investors already know that higher oil prices negatively impact the stock prices of companies that are highly dependent on oil such as airlines, since more expensive oil means higher expenses and lower profits for those companies.
In much the same way, a country's dependency on oil determines how its currency will be impacted by a change in oil prices. The US's massive foreign dependence on oil makes the US dollar more sensitive to oil prices than other countries. Therefore, any sharp increase in oil prices is typically dollar-negative.
If you believe the price of oil will continue to increase for the near term, you could express that viewpoint in the currency markets by once again favoring commodity-based economies like Australia and Canada or selling other energy-dependent countries like Japan.
A common way to think about U.S. interest rates is how much it's going to cost to borrow money, whether for our mortgages or how much we'll earn on our bond and money market investments. Currency traders think bigger. Interest rate policy is actually a key driver of currency prices and typically a strategy for new currency traders.
Fundamentally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen because the higher interest rates attract more foreign investors. When foreign investors invest in U.S. treasuries, they must sell their own currency and buy U.S. Dollars in order to purchase the bonds. If you believe U.S. interest rates will continue to rise, you could express that view by going long U.S. Dollars.
If you believe that the Fed has finished raising rates for the time being, you could capitalize on that view by buying a currency with a higher interest rate, or at least the prospect of relatively higher rates. For example, U.S. rates may be higher than those of Euroland now but the prospect of higher rates in Euroland, albeit still lower than the U.S., may drive investors to purchase Euros.
How Rising Gold Prices Affect Currencies:
It's not hard to understand why we've experienced a run-up in gold prices lately. In the US, we're dealing with the threat of inflation and a lot of geo-political tension. Historically, gold is a country-neutral alternative to the U.S. dollar. So given the inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. Dollar, currency traders can take advantage of volatility in gold prices in innovative ways.
For example, if gold breaks an important price level, one would expect gold to move higher in coming periods. With this in mind, forex traders would look to sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. Moreover, higher gold prices frequently have a positive impact on the currencies of major gold producers. For example, Australia is the world's third largest exporter of gold, and Canada is the world's third largest producer of gold. Therefore, if you believe the price of gold will continue to rise you could establish long positions in Australian Dollar or the Canadian Dollar - or even position to be long those currencies against other major countries like the UK or Japan.
Translating Rising Oil Prices to Currency Trading Opportunities:
Equity investors already know that higher oil prices negatively impact the stock prices of companies that are highly dependent on oil such as airlines, since more expensive oil means higher expenses and lower profits for those companies.
In much the same way, a country's dependency on oil determines how its currency will be impacted by a change in oil prices. The US's massive foreign dependence on oil makes the US dollar more sensitive to oil prices than other countries. Therefore, any sharp increase in oil prices is typically dollar-negative.
If you believe the price of oil will continue to increase for the near term, you could express that viewpoint in the currency markets by once again favoring commodity-based economies like Australia and Canada or selling other energy-dependent countries like Japan.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Basics
According to the BIS, average daily turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets is estimated at $1,880 billion. Daily averages in April for different years, in billions of US dollars, are presented on the chart below:
This $1.88 trillion in global foreign exchange market "traditional" turnover was broken down as follows:
This $1.88 trillion in global foreign exchange market "traditional" turnover was broken down as follows:
- $621 billion in spot transactions
- $208 billion in outright forwards
- $944 billion in forex swaps
- $107 billion estimated gaps in reporting
In addition to "traditional" turnover, $1.26 trillion was traded in derivatives.
Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Average daily global turnover in traditional foreign exchange market transactions totaled $2.7 trillion in April 2006 according to IFSL estimates based on semi-annual London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore Foreign Exchange Committee data. Overall turnover, including non-traditional foreign exchange derivatives and products traded on exchanges, averaged around $2.9 trillion a day. This was more than ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the world’s equity markets. Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues such as internet trading platforms has also made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market.
Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 32.4% in April 2006. RPP
The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20). These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually 0–3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually $100,000.
These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100 / 1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000 / 1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' checks. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 3 pips wide (i.e. 0.0003). Competition has greatly increased with pip spreads shrinking on the major pairs to as little as 1 to 2 pips.
Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Average daily global turnover in traditional foreign exchange market transactions totaled $2.7 trillion in April 2006 according to IFSL estimates based on semi-annual London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore Foreign Exchange Committee data. Overall turnover, including non-traditional foreign exchange derivatives and products traded on exchanges, averaged around $2.9 trillion a day. This was more than ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the world’s equity markets. Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues such as internet trading platforms has also made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market.
Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 32.4% in April 2006. RPP
The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20). These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually 0–3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually $100,000.
These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100 / 1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000 / 1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' checks. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 3 pips wide (i.e. 0.0003). Competition has greatly increased with pip spreads shrinking on the major pairs to as little as 1 to 2 pips.
Top 10 Currency Traders
- Deutsche Bank
- UBS AG
- Citigroup
- Barclays Capital
- Royal Bank of Scotland
- Goldman Sachs
- HSBC
- Bank of America
- JPMorgan Chase
- Merrill Lynch
Most traded currencies
- Eurozone euro
- Japanese yen
- British pound sterling
- Swiss franc
- Australian dollar
- Canadian dollar
- Swedish krona
- Norwegian krone
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